Project Summary

Key findings:

• The Helping Hand and Linking Youth program is likely to have a substantial impact on the lives of young Aboriginal people in Inverell, New South Wales who have been incarcerated or are at risk of incarceration. This should have positive flow-on effects for the young people's families and significant others, the community and the justice system.
• If the anticipated investment for FY15 is maintained, $1.4m is forecast to be invested into the program over the next five years. This includes cash investment from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ($1.1m) and the Inverell Shire Council ($183k) and in-kind investment from the Council and community volunteers. There is forecast to be approximately $5k per annum invested for each young person in the program.
• Based on this level of investment, the social value associated with the outcomes of the program is forecast to be $7.8m over the next five years ($1.6m per annum). Over 40 per cent of this value ($660k per annum) is attributable to the reallocation of justice system resources that would ordinarily be used to address the young people's anti-social and offending behaviour.
• When the $7.8m in social value that is expected to be generated is compared to the anticipated $1.4m investment in the program, the Social Return on Investment (SROI) ratio equates to 6:1. This means for every $1 that is forecast to be invested in the program between FY15 to FY19, approximately $6 of social value is expected to be created.
• If the impact of the program on the justice system is isolated, the SROI ratio is 3:1, and if the impact of the program on young people is isolated, the SROI is 3:1. This indicates that if only the objective measures, or only the subjective measures of the program impact are taken into account, the social value created is forecast to be greater than the investment required to generate this value.

About the Helping Hand and Linking Youth program

The Inverell Shire Council has delivered the Helping Hand and Linking Youth program in the town of Inverell (northern New South Wales) since FY11. It provides intensive case management to Aboriginal youth. The program is designed to address the underlying causes of offending and achieves this through appropriate referrals to other service providers, mentoring and a holistic approach to support which ensures the young people feel cared for and understood.

Impact of the Helping Hand and Linking Youth program

"Most of them are trying to set themselves a goal, like going to school... now they have that safety net that they can fall back on with Kerrie and the program ... that's what my success is ... before they'd be in jail... now they're at school or doing programs"

Aboriginal Elder

The Helping Hand and Linking Youth program is designed to address the lack of support available to Aboriginal young people in Inverell and surrounding areas which inhibits their ability to live healthy lives and develop a strong identity. The program has historically worked with around 15 Aboriginal youth (aged 12 to 18 years) at any point in time who have previously been incarcerated, or are at risk of being incarcerated. This is expected to increase to 25 Aboriginal youth in FY15. The program assists them to return to school or engage in training or alternative pathways to education, make positive life choices and reduce their chances of offending or reoffending. Using an intensive, individually tailored and holistic case management approach the program has anecdotally been successful in achieving significant changes in the lives of these young people despite the challenging circumstances they face. This report forecasts that these positive outcomes are likely to continue into the future.

The justice system is also positively impacted by the program. Between 2012 and 2014, 71 per cent of the young people involved in the program did not reoffend (22 of 31 clients).¹ This compares favourably to multiple studies of youth recidivism that have found the juvenile reoffending rate to be 68 per cent (i.e. only 32 per cent did not reoffend).² This forecast report utilised the data collected by the program staff on the justice outcomes to make predictions on the future outcomes for the justice system.

The families and significant others of the young people that participate in the program, as well as the community, also benefit from the program and are likely to continue to experience these benefits in the future. They experience less value as a result of the program (5% and 4% respectively) than other stakeholders.

"What changes is that they get back into school... They reduce their drug and alcohol intake... They get to know their support networks... They reduce their offending... A lot of kids get on the right track thanks to this thing"

Juvenile Justice NSW representative

Value of the changes generated by the program

There is social value associated with the outcomes of the Helping Hands and Linking Youth program. Financial proxies have been used to approximate the value of these outcomes. The total value created by the program is the unique value that will be created by the program for the stakeholders attributable to the projected investment during FY15 to FY19.

The anticipated investment of $1.4m in the program over FY15 to FY19 is forecast to generate approximately $7.8m of social value, resulting in a Social Return on Investment ratio of 6:1. This means that for every $1 invested in program, $6 of social and economic value is expected to be created for stakeholders, predominantly for young people and the justice system. If the anticipated funding from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (approx. $216k per annum) is considered independently, the Social Return on Investment ratio is 7:1.

Due to the program preventing young people from engaging in anti-social and criminal behaviour, it is forecast that it will be possible for the justice system to reallocate resources that would ordinarily be used to address these issues. Based on average policing, courts, juvenile justice and detention costs, this equates to almost $471k per annum³, which is far greater than the amount that is expected to be invested in the program. The SROI ratio is 2:1 when only justice outcomes are included.

The following table is a summary of the value that is expected to be created for each stakeholder group.

As with any financial modelling, it is expected that any changes in the variables would result in changes to the SROI ratio. In seven scenarios tested, the SROI ratio remains at 4:1 or above, indicating that the social value that is forecast to be created is likely to be greater than the investment that is forecast to be made in the program. It will be important to collect data related to the most sensitive variables over time to ensure that estimates are robust and to ensure that the program is creating the expected level of social return on investment. In particular, more data needs to be collected about the outputs and outcomes of the program, the comparator population (e.g. the offending behaviour of young people in New England, NSW), and the value associated with the outcomes (e.g. the justice system costs).

Insights from the analysis

The Helping Hand and Linking Youth model has a number of critical elements that support young people to develop into healthy adults, as well as creating outcomes for other stakeholders:

Long-term, tailored approach

• In many cases support is provided for up to five years
• Young people with high needs are supported up to 12 hours per week

Mentoring relationship integrated into support

• The program manager and Aboriginal Mentor build trust with the young people and help them set goals
• Mentors have often been through similar experiences to the young people, which makes them easier to relate to

Engagement with culture and Elders

• Young people have the opportunity to connect or re-connect with culture, through engaging with Elders and cultural and art activities
• Young people who engage significantly with this aspect of the program experience numerous benefits including feeling a sense of belonging to a community, more pride in self and role in the community and increased connection to culture

Strong partnerships with other service providers and the justice system

• The program manager uses their strong network of relationships with local service providers to link young people to services and to influence the services delivered
• The justice system, especially the local police force, benefits from the closeness of the Helping Hand and Linking Youth staff with the local Aboriginal community

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the analysis we recommend that the Inverell Shire Council:

Funding the program

1. Secure funding for the full costs of the program for a five year period in recognition of the time taken to generate changes for the young people involved
2. Seek funding from the New South Wales Government in recognition of the significant justice system cost savings expected to be generated by the program

Demonstrating the value of the program

3. Share insights gained from the program with other organisations focused on youth justice diversion
4. Collect data on the activity delivered (outputs) and the changes experienced by stakeholders as a result of this activity (outcomes) on an on-going basis to improve the rigour of future analyses

About the project

The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (the Department) commissioned Social Ventures Australia (SVA) Consulting to understand, measure and value the changes generated through the Indigenous Justice Programme (IJP). The Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology was used to complete this analysis. The Helping Hand and Linking Youth program was one of the IJP funded projects analysed.

The Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology was used to complete this analysis. SROI is a framework for understanding, measuring and accounting for social, economic and environmental value. It places a monetary value on the impact (the benefit) of an activity, and compares this with the cost incurred in creating that benefit. SROI is stakeholder informed which increases the depth of analysis required as it engages more broadly with those who experience change, than traditional cost-benefit analysis.

The SROI analysis looked at the investment that is forecast to be made and the outcomes that are forecast to be achieved for five years, from July 2014 to June 2019. Limited historical data was available to forecast the impact of the program in the forthcoming period. Professional judgements have been made based on stakeholder consultations and other data collected over time by the Helping Hand and Linking Youth program staff to represent the extent of change experienced by stakeholders and the value of these changes. Recommendations have been made to improve the rigour of future analyses.

Indigenous Justice Programme

The IJP is a competitive grants program administered by the Department that funds activities that seek to improve community safety by reducing the high rates of offending and incarceration of Indigenous Australians. Its objectives are to support safer communities by reducing Indigenous offending, and through that, reduce Indigenous victimisation and incarceration. The IJP seeks to achieve this objective through a national focus that complements State and Territory initiatives.