Project Summary

Key findings

  • The Youth Prevention and Diversion program is likely to have a substantial impact on the lives of young Aboriginal people in Smithton (Tasmania) who are at risk of offending. This should have flow on effects to their families, the community mentors involved in the program and the justice system.
  • If the current investment is maintained, $847k is forecast to be invested into the program over the next five years. This includes cash investment from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ($694k) and cash and in-kind support from the Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation ($154k). There is forecast to be approximately $12k per annum invested each young person in the program.
  • Based on this level of investment, the social value associated with the outcomes of the program is forecast to be $4.8m over the next five years ($952k per annum).
  • Almost half of this value ($430k per annum) is attributable to the reallocation of justice system resources that would ordinarily be used to address the young people's anti-social and offending behaviour.
  • When the $4.8m in social value that is expected to be generated is compared to the anticipated $0.8m investment in the program, the Social Return on Investment (SROI) ratio equates to 6:1. This means for every $1 that is forecast to be invested in the program between FY15 to FY19, approximately $6 of social value is expected to be created.
  • If the anticipated funding from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (approx. $139k per annum) is considered independently, the Social Return on Investment ratio is 7:1.
  • If the impact of the program on the justice system is isolated, the SROI ratio is 3:1. Investment into the program is justified even if the program was to be successful with only 1 in 5 young people who go through the program (SROI ratio is 1.4:1).
  • If the impact of the program on young people is isolated, the SROI is 3:1. This indicates that if only the objective measures, or only the subjective measures of the program impact are taken into account, the social value created is forecast to be greater than the investment required to generate this value.

About the Youth Prevention and Diversion program

The Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation (CHAC) has delivered the Youth Prevention and Diversion program in Smithton, Tasmania since 2010. The program provides ongoing intensive and targeted case management to Aboriginal young people and connects them with school, family, and community. CHAC also offer a wraparound service through their other programs like employment and health services which support the youth in the program.

Impact of the Youth Prevention and Diversion program

"...CHAC [the program] has shaped who I am going to be. CHAC helped me realise what I hide and what I need to do to get where I want to be. They have shown me that I have talents..."

Young person 1

CHAC's Youth Prevention and Diversion program has historically worked with around 30 young people (aged 12 to 24) per year who are at risk of offending or entering the criminal justice system. The program assists these young people increase their self-esteem, return to school, engage in employment, make positive connections to others and avoid unlawful behaviour. The program has anecdotally been successful in achieving substantial changes in the lives of these young people despite the challenging circumstances. This report forecasts that these positive outcomes are likely to continue into the future.

The justice system is also positively impacted by the program. Between 2010 and 2013, 55 per cent of the young people involved in the program did not reoffend.1 This compares favourably to multiple studies of youth recidivism that have found the juvenile reoffending rate to be 68 per cent (i.e. only 32 per cent did not reoffend).2 Of the participants that did offend, 36 per cent re-offended only once.

The families (and significant others) of the young people that participate in the program, as well as the community members that mentor the young people, also benefit from the program. They are likely to continue to experience these benefits in the future.

"...Youth Justice Tasmania doesn't have the contacts, cultural context to work with these kids. Having CHAC [the program] means they get linked in to the support they need to get on the right track... "

Youth Justice Tasmania

Value of the changes generated by the program

There is social value associated with the outcomes of the Youth Prevention and Diversion program. Financial proxies have been used to approximate the value of these outcomes. The total value created by the program is the unique value that will be created by the Youth Prevention and Diversion program for the stakeholders attributable to the projected investment during FY15 to FY19.

The anticipated investment of $850k over 2015 to 2019 in the program will create approximately $4.8m of social value, resulting in a Social Return on Investment ratio of 6:1. This means that for every $1 invested in program, $6 of social and economic value is expected to be created for stakeholders, predominantly for young people and the justice system. If the anticipated funding from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (approx. $139k per annum) is considered independently, the Social Return on Investment ratio is 7:1.

Due to the program preventing young people from engaging in anti-social and criminal behaviour, it is forecast that it will be possible for the justice system to reallocate resources that would ordinarily be used to address these issues. Based on average policing, courts, juvenile justice and detention costs, this equates to almost $430k per annum3, which is far greater than the amount that is expected to be invested in the program. The SROI ratio is 3:1 when only justice outcomes are included.

The following table is a summary of the value that is expected to be created for each stakeholder group across FY15-19.

Table S1.1 - Value created for each stakeholder group
Stakeholders Outcomes due to Youth Prevention and Diversion Value creation ('000) Value per stakeholder group ('000)
1. Young people

1.1 Increased self-esteem

$665

$2,107
(44%)

1.2 Increased engagement in meaningful activity

$613

1.3. More positive connections to others

$309

1.4 Reduced likelihood of detention or incarceration in the future

$520

2. Family and Significant Others

2.1 Improve communication between family members

$107

$150
(3%)

2.2 Increase engagement in lives of the young people in their care

$44

3. Community mentors

3.1 Increased sense of pride from contribution to community

$355

$355
(7%)

4. Justice system

4.1 Reduction in anti-social behaviour

$117

$2,148
(45%)

4.2 Decreased number of young people offending

$116

4.3 Decreased number of young people in detention

$1,916

Total Value Created (FY2015-19)

$4.8m

Investment

$0.8m

SROI Ratio

6:1

As with any financial modelling, it is expected that any changes in the variables would result in changes to the SROI ratio. In eight scenarios tested, the SROI ratio remains at 3:1 or above, indicating that the social value that is forecast to be created is likely to be greater than the investment that is forecast to be made in the program. It will be important to collect data related to the most sensitive variables over time to ensure that estimates are robust and to ensure that the program is creating the expected level of social return on investment. In particular, more data needs to be collected about the outputs and outcomes of the program, and the comparator population (e.g. the offending behaviour of young people in Smithton/Wynyard).

Insights from the analysis

The Youth Prevention and Diversion program's intensive support model leads to a holistic transformation of young people's lives that will enable them to break the cycle of offending and re-offending. It has a number of critical elements:

Experienced, committed staff

  • Dedication and the unique skills of the case worker are key to the success of the program, particularly in helping young people increase self-esteem
  • The case worker and the CHAC CEO spend significantly more time supporting the young people than they are funded for
  • The case worker / Elder having experienced similar challenges to those facing the young people and have proven their success in overcoming negative life circumstances

Long-term, tailored approach

  • Long-term mentoring relationship between the case worker and the young people, that continues as young people consolidate positive changes
  • Consistent, regular contact between the case worker and the young people (up to 10-20 hours per week in crisis periods), depending on the young person's needs

Local community knowledge

  • The justice system, especially the local police force, benefit from the closeness of the CHAC staff with the local Aboriginal community

Establishment of support networks for the young people

  • Integration of the mentoring relationship into broader programs
  • Strong partnerships between the program and other community, education, health and welfare services
  • Involving Elders in supporting the young people
  • Involvement of Indigenous parents in the mentoring relationship (where appropriate), to improve parent-child relationships

"... All of my free time is dedicated to the kids. I talk to kids one on one. I would bring them to our home for dinner or a sleep in. This allows them to see how a loving and understanding household functions."

Case worker, CHAC

Recommendations

Based on the findings of the analysis we recommend that the Circular Head Aboriginal Corporation:

Funding the program

  1. Secure funding for the full costs of the program for a five year period in recognition of the time taken to generate changes for the young people involved
  2. Seek funding from the Tasmanian Government in recognition of the significant justice system cost savings forecast to be generated by the program
  3. Resource the program with more than one person to ensure program sustainability and increase impact

Demonstrating the value of the program

  1. Share knowledge of the program with other organisations focused on youth justice early intervention approaches
  2. Collect data on the activity delivered (outputs) and the changes experienced by stakeholders as a result of this activity (outcomes) on an on-going basis to improve the rigour of future analyses

About this project

The Australian Government Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet commissioned Social Ventures Australia (SVA) Consulting to understand, measure and value the changes generated through three programs funded through the Indigenous Justice Programme (IJP). The Youth Prevention and Diversion program was one of the funded programs analysed.

The Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology was used to complete this analysis. SROI is a framework for understanding, measuring and accounting for social, economic and environmental value. It places a monetary value on the impact (the benefit) of an activity, and compares this with the cost incurred in creating that benefit. SROI is stakeholder informed which increases the depth of analysis required as it engages more broadly with those who experience change, than traditional cost-benefit analysis.

The SROI analysis looked at the investment that is forecast to be made and the outcomes that are forecast to be achieved for five years, from July 2014 to June 2019. Limited historical data was available to forecast the impact of the program in the forthcoming period. Professional judgements have been made based on stakeholder consultations and other data collected over time by the program staff to represent the extent of change experienced by stakeholders and the value of these changes. Recommendations have been made to improve the rigour of future analyses.

Indigenous Justice Programme

The IJP is a competitive grants program administered by the Department that funds activities that seek to improve community safety by reducing the high rates of offending and incarceration of Indigenous Australians. Its objectives are to support safer communities by reducing Indigenous offending, and through that, reduce Indigenous victimisation and incarceration. The IJP seeks to achieve this objective through a national focus that complements State and Territory initiatives.