Forecast SROI Analysis of the Helping Hand and Linking Youth program (Inverell Shire Council)

Key findings:

• The Helping Hand and Linking Youth program is likely to have a substantial impact on the lives of young Aboriginal people in Inverell, New South Wales who have been incarcerated or are at risk of incarceration. This should have positive flow-on effects for the young people's families and significant others, the community and the justice system.
• If the anticipated investment for FY15 is maintained, $1.4m is forecast to be invested into the program over the next five years. This includes cash investment from the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ($1.1m) and the Inverell Shire Council ($183k) and in-kind investment from the Council and community volunteers. There is forecast to be approximately $5k per annum invested for each young person in the program.
• Based on this level of investment, the social value associated with the outcomes of the program is forecast to be $7.8m over the next five years ($1.6m per annum). Over 40 per cent of this value ($660k per annum) is attributable to the reallocation of justice system resources that would ordinarily be used to address the young people's anti-social and offending behaviour.
• When the $7.8m in social value that is expected to be generated is compared to the anticipated $1.4m investment in the program, the Social Return on Investment (SROI) ratio equates to 6:1. This means for every $1 that is forecast to be invested in the program between FY15 to FY19, approximately $6 of social value is expected to be created.
• If the impact of the program on the justice system is isolated, the SROI ratio is 3:1, and if the impact of the program on young people is isolated, the SROI is 3:1. This indicates that if only the objective measures, or only the subjective measures of the program impact are taken into account, the social value created is forecast to be greater than the investment required to generate this value.

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